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Monday, June 13, 2005
Valley fault still overdue for big quake

People are talking about what Sunday's quake in Anza means for the San Andreas Fault that runs right through the Coachella Valley and is capable of producing massive earthquakes. We have a look at the fault itself, and what the experts say about when the San Andreas Fault might produce an earthquake.

On this day, it was quiet in the small canyon north of the Salton Sea. But despite how still it seems, the earth's power is all around you. The hills are directly above the San Andreas Fault. There you can find some of the most visible evidence of the San Andreas Fault above the earth’s surface.

The fault runs right through the valley. There is no crack along the ground. Here, the fault itself is several miles below the earth's surface.

Tour guide Jim Trout showed us the area up close.

"What we do see is a result of abrasion from these two giant land masses, the Pacific and North American plates, and the fault gouge that comes up. This is an incredible place."

Trouble is, this area hasn't seen a major earthquake in hundreds of years. That's why seismologists say we're way overdue.

"It worries us. It suggests that we're not too far from our next big earthquake along that fault."

As for earthquake predictions like the one made by this seismologist last year about the magnitude 7 earthquake that had a 50-50 chance of hitting the valley. Some say don't put too much stock in those.

"These are just scientific exercises that people shouldn't be concerned about The reliability isn't high, let’s put it that way."

Still, even though earthquake predictions might not be reliable, seismologists say it's best to look at history to see when the next big quake might hit.

They say major quakes hit the southern section of the San Andreas Fault about once every 150 years.

So when did the last quake hit?

148 years ago.

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Valley fault still overdue for big quake

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